Black book values10/3/2023 ![]() ![]() Pre-pandemic, there were more than 3 million vehicles on dealer lots, according to Yurchenko. As a result, rental fleet sales will be at historically low levels for the third consecutive year. The big question is whether manufacturers can produce enough vehicles to satisfy the dealers and rental companies. He added that dealers are fighting to be first in line to get inventory. “The majority of consumers are paying above sticker price, which was unheard of a few years ago,” Yurchenko said. The average incentive in March 2022 was close to 3.5%.īlack Book expects month-over-month growth in new vehicle sales for the fourth quarter of 2022, yet total light-vehicle sales are only expected to reach 15 million this year. Pre-pandemic, the average incentive was about 11% of MSRP, according to Yurchenko. Inventory limitations and new sales incentives keep hitting record low levels every month. Yurchenko believes the most optimistic forecast is that the industry will reach some sort of normalcy in terms of production levels by 2023, but dealer lots are not going to return to normal levels anytime soon. Supply-chain issues - including the ongoing chip shortage - are still the biggest factor right now driving this whole scenario. Numbers are still low, but the volume of repossessions is increasing.” “Recent trends point to an increase in repossession volume. The weights using combined retention rates of vehicles of different ages.“We’re talking about 1 million vehicles per year,” Yurchenko said. In order to ensure a consistency of the Index from month to month, we adjust The year, the mix of different model years (ages) on the auction floor changes. Used vehicles as a percent of the original typically equipped MSRP. Using Black Book’s published Wholesale Average Value on 2- to 6-year-old ![]() Purpose of Black Book’s Wholesale Used Vehicle Retention Index is to provide anĪccurate and unbiased view of the strength of used vehicle wholesale market Regional Adjustment : Regional differences are identified andĪccounted for when the national average is derivedīlack Book Retention Index Black Book Index: Index Overview.Non-linear regression and depends on the vehicle class and age The cents per mile rate is determined using Mileage Adjustment : All sales prices are adjusted for deviation of actual mileage fromĮxpected mileage for a given month.Of the vehicle is ascertained and included in the calculations The data is prepared, the following adjustments are made to any sale: In addition to a statistical outlier detection process, the data is reviewed and annotated by automotive analysts in order to apply machine learning techniques. We use a proprietary statistical expert system in which machine learning techniques are aided by our subject matter experts – analysts with a combined 250+ years of industry experience. MethodologyĪll Black Book values are data driven. Marketplace before any data trends emerge. Properly identify changes in buying behavior, demand, and supply in the They: inspect sold vehicles, record weather, attendance and other localĬonditions, and interact with the industry’s front line. Our survey personnel attend and report on over 65 auctions each week where Of all auction sales, and we account for all available sources, not just Lenders, dealer-to-dealer auction platforms, and more. Sales data from most NAAA member auctions, as well as a variety of upstreamĪuction feeds from OEMs, fleet management companies, rental car companies, Relationships and agreements nationwide, Black Book receives transactional ![]() Most comprehensive view of the wholesale market. Sales Dataīlack Book’s wholesale price is based on the Through the use of real-time data, powered by AutoCheck, we incorporate over 1,200 VIN specific history data elements, and adjust the value accordingly, based on our proprietary algorithm, ensuring our users incorporate all potential variables into the true wholesale value. Recently, Black Book introduced a VIN specific valuation (History Adjusted Value) that considers the individual history of each vehicle, including the number of owners, vehicle usage, number of accidents and corresponding severity, title issues, flood/hail/fire damage, CPO history, and other variables that are not obvious when physically inspecting a vehicle. Precision, in the timeliest manner possible. Project a vehicle’s value, nor do we imply what the value should be rather,īlack Book reports the current valuation. As an independent data guide, Blackīook’s mission is to agnostically report the market, therefore we do not The published values reflect daily changes in the marketplace and are adjustedįor mileage, condition history, and region. Over 60 years, Black Book’s Wholesale Values have been utilized by industryĮxperts, including buyers, sellers, and lenders, as the Gold-Standard toĪccurately represent the current fair value of a vehicle on the open auction. ![]()
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